3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Chase Young (age 21.0 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #3 (range #1-#40, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Derek Barnett (Bust), Arden Key (Starter), Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (Contributor). Ceiling is Arden Key (Starter); floor is Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (Contributor). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Derek Barnett, Jonathan Allen, Takkarist McKinley. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #3 and the room's #1 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects A.J. Epenesa (age 21.6 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #59 (range #16-#102, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 2% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Takkarist McKinley (Bust), Derek Barnett (Bust), Arden Key (Starter). Ceiling is Bradley Chubb (Starter); floor is Arden Key (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Takkarist McKinley, Derek Barnett, Duke Ejiofor. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 29 spots below the room's consensus #30 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Yetur Gross-Matos (age 22.1 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #89 (range #46-#132, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Arden Key (Starter), Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (Contributor), Josh Sweat (Starter). Ceiling is Joey Bosa (Starter); floor is Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (Contributor). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #30 and the model won't take him before #89 — a 59-spot markdown. The 59-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.