3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Josiah Deguara (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #246 (range #214-#278, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: George Kittle (Bust), Jaylen Samuels (Contributor), Tyler Conklin (Starter). Ceiling is Tyler Conklin (Starter); floor is Jerell Adams (Contributor). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: George Kittle, Gerald Everett. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #84 and the model won't take him before #246 — a 162-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Brycen Hopkins (age 23.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #107 (range #63-#151, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: MyCole Pruitt (Starter), Tyler Conklin (Starter), Eric Saubert (Bust). Ceiling is MyCole Pruitt (Starter); floor is Beau Sandland. Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 15 spots below the room's consensus #92 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Harrison Bryant (age 22.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #124 (range #90-#158, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Chris Herndon (Starter), Jaylen Samuels (Contributor), Adam Shaheen (Bust). Ceiling is Dallas Goedert (Franchise); floor is Jaylen Samuels (Contributor). RAS 3.90 (39th percentile at TE). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #75 and the model won't take him before #124 — a 49-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.