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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2020 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (EDGE)
KK
Khalid Kareem
EDGE · Notre Dame
22.0 yo · — · —
JO
Julian Okwara
EDGE · Notre Dame
22.3 yo · — · —
MD
Michael Danna
EDGE · Michigan
22.4 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Khalid Kareem
Predicted pick
#169
range #138–#200
Bust probability
12%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#153
on 1 board
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Julian Okwara
Predicted pick
#185
range #165–#205
Bust probability
12%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#63
on 23 boards
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Michael Danna
Predicted pick
#76
range #59–#93
Bust probability
5%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$12Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Khalid Kareem· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Julian Okwara· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Michael Danna· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionKhalid Kareem0
  • AthleticismJulian Okwara29
  • AgeMichael Danna97
  • ConsensusJulian Okwara19
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Khalid Kareem50
  • Breakout ageKhalid Kareem50
  • WorkloadKhalid Kareem100
  • RAS × productionKhalid Kareem100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Breeland SpeaksEDGE · Bust→ shared byKhalid KareemJulian Okwara
Khalid Kareem
  • Breeland Speaksshared
    EDGE · #46
    Bust
  • Geneo Grissom
    EDGE · #97
    Contributor
  • Shane Ray
    EDGE · #23
    Franchise
  • Leonard Williams
    EDGE · #6
    Franchise
  • Deatrich Wise Jr.
    EDGE · #131
    Bust
Julian Okwara
  • DeForest Buckner
    EDGE · #7
    Starter
  • Jalyn Holmes
    EDGE · #102
    Contributor
  • Breeland Speaksshared
    EDGE · #46
    Bust
  • Kamalei Correa
    EDGE · #42
    Contributor
  • Carl Nassib
    EDGE · #65
    Starter
Michael Danna
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Khalid Kareem
Risks
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 4.86 (48th percentile at EDGE). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Comp group has bust risk
    2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Breeland Speaks, Deatrich Wise Jr.. Mixed signal from history.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    2 boards have him at mean rank #120; model has him #169 — a 48-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Mid-major standout
    School SP+ 17.7 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition.
Julian Okwara
Risks
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 4.31 (43th percentile at EDGE). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    24 boards have him at mean rank #67; model has him #185 — a 118-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Promising comp group
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes hit Starter-or-better: DeForest Buckner, Carl Nassib.
Michael Danna
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #292; model has him #76 — a 216-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Snap share
Khalid KareemJulian OkwaraMichael Danna· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Khalid Kareem

Draftanomics projects Khalid Kareem (age 22.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #169 (range #138-#200, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 12% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Breeland Speaks (Bust), Geneo Grissom (Contributor), Shane Ray (Franchise). Ceiling is Leonard Williams (Franchise); floor is Geneo Grissom (Contributor). School SP+ 17.7 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. RAS 4.86 (48th percentile at EDGE). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #120 and the model won't take him before #169 — a 48-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.

Julian Okwara

Draftanomics projects Julian Okwara (age 22.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #185 (range #165-#205, wide band). Bust probability sits at 12% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: DeForest Buckner (Starter), Jalyn Holmes (Contributor), Breeland Speaks (Bust). Ceiling is DeForest Buckner (Starter); floor is Jalyn Holmes (Contributor). School SP+ 17.7 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. RAS 4.31 (43th percentile at EDGE). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #67 and the model won't take him before #185 — a 118-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.

Michael Danna

Draftanomics projects Michael Danna (age 22.4 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #76 (range #59-#93, wide band). Bust probability sits at 5% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 216 spots ahead of the room (board #76 vs consensus #292), and at a 5% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.