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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2020 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (EDGE)
KK
Khalid Kareem
EDGE · Notre Dame
22.0 yo · — · —
JO
Julian Okwara
EDGE · Notre Dame
22.3 yo · — · —
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Khalid Kareem over Julian Okwara.

Decisive factor: 16-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Khalid Kareem
Predicted pick
#169
range #138–#200
Bust probability
12%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#153
on 1 board
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Julian Okwara
Predicted pick
#185
range #165–#205
Bust probability
12%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#63
on 23 boards
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Khalid Kareem· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Julian Okwara· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionKhalid Kareem0
  • AthleticismJulian Okwara29
  • AgeKhalid Kareem86
  • ConsensusJulian Okwara19
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Khalid Kareem50
  • Breakout ageKhalid Kareem50
  • WorkloadKhalid Kareem100
  • RAS × productionKhalid Kareem100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Breeland SpeaksEDGE · Bust→ shared byKhalid KareemJulian Okwara
Khalid Kareem
  • Breeland Speaksshared
    EDGE · #46
    Bust
  • Geneo Grissom
    EDGE · #97
    Contributor
  • Shane Ray
    EDGE · #23
    Franchise
  • Leonard Williams
    EDGE · #6
    Franchise
  • Deatrich Wise Jr.
    EDGE · #131
    Bust
Julian Okwara
  • DeForest Buckner
    EDGE · #7
    Starter
  • Jalyn Holmes
    EDGE · #102
    Contributor
  • Breeland Speaksshared
    EDGE · #46
    Bust
  • Kamalei Correa
    EDGE · #42
    Contributor
  • Carl Nassib
    EDGE · #65
    Starter

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Khalid Kareem
Risks
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 4.86 (48th percentile at EDGE). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Comp group has bust risk
    2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Breeland Speaks, Deatrich Wise Jr.. Mixed signal from history.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    2 boards have him at mean rank #120; model has him #169 — a 48-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Mid-major standout
    School SP+ 17.7 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition.
Julian Okwara
Risks
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 4.31 (43th percentile at EDGE). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    24 boards have him at mean rank #67; model has him #185 — a 118-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Promising comp group
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes hit Starter-or-better: DeForest Buckner, Carl Nassib.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Snap share
Khalid KareemJulian Okwara· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Khalid Kareem

Draftanomics projects Khalid Kareem (age 22.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #169 (range #138-#200, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 12% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Breeland Speaks (Bust), Geneo Grissom (Contributor), Shane Ray (Franchise). Ceiling is Leonard Williams (Franchise); floor is Geneo Grissom (Contributor). School SP+ 17.7 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. RAS 4.86 (48th percentile at EDGE). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #120 and the model won't take him before #169 — a 48-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.

Julian Okwara

Draftanomics projects Julian Okwara (age 22.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #185 (range #165-#205, wide band). Bust probability sits at 12% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: DeForest Buckner (Starter), Jalyn Holmes (Contributor), Breeland Speaks (Bust). Ceiling is DeForest Buckner (Starter); floor is Jalyn Holmes (Contributor). School SP+ 17.7 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. RAS 4.31 (43th percentile at EDGE). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #67 and the model won't take him before #185 — a 118-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.