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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2020 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (C, G)
KI
Keith Ismael
C · San Diego St.
— · — · —
MH
Matt Hennessy
C · Temple
— · — · —
BB
Ben Bartch
G · Saint John's (MN)
— · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Keith Ismael
Predicted pick
#143
range #105–#181
Bust probability
68%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Matt Hennessy
Predicted pick
#36
range #1–#75
Bust probability
0%
0%0/3 comps
Consensus rank
#76
on 23 boards
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Ben Bartch
Predicted pick
#55
range #36–#74
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
#158
on 22 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Keith Ismael· Offensive line
  • Matt Hennessy· Offensive line
  • Ben Bartch· Offensive line
Axis leaders
  • ProductionKeith Ismael50
  • AthleticismMatt Hennessy74
  • AgeKeith Ismael92
  • ConsensusMatt Hennessy5
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Keith Ismael50
  • Breakout ageKeith Ismael50
  • WorkloadKeith Ismael50
  • RAS × productionKeith Ismael34

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • JJ DielmanC · TBD→ shared byKeith IsmaelMatt Hennessy
Keith Ismael
  • Chase Roullier
    C · #199
    TBD
  • Austin Reiter
    C · #222
    TBD
  • Shaq Mason
    C · #131
    TBD
  • JJ Dielmanshared
    C · #176
    TBD
  • Ali Marpet
    C · #61
    TBD
Matt Hennessy
  • James Daniels
    C · #39
    Starter
  • Scott Quessenberry
    C · #155
    Starter
  • Austin Corbett
    C · #33
    Franchise
  • Graham Glasgow
    C · #95
    TBD
  • JJ Dielmanshared
    C · #176
    TBD
Ben Bartch
  • Colby Gossett
    G · #213
    Contributor
  • Jordan Morgan
    G · #147
    TBD
  • Sam Jones
    G · #183
    Bust
  • Robert Myers
    G · #176
    TBD
  • Terry Poole
    G · #130
    TBD

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Keith Ismael
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    1 board have him at mean rank #112; model has him #143 — a 31-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
Matt Hennessy
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    24 boards place him at mean rank #74; model has him #36 — a 38-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: James Daniels, Scott Quessenberry, Austin Corbett. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Ben Bartch
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    23 boards place him at mean rank #97; model has him #55 — a 42-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Snap share
Keith IsmaelMatt HennessyBen Bartch· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Keith Ismael

Draftanomics projects Keith Ismael as a mid-round flyer at #143 (range #105-#181, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 68% — scary. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Chase Roullier, Austin Reiter, Shaq Mason. Ceiling is Ali Marpet; floor is Austin Reiter. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #112 and the model won't take him before #143 — a 31-spot markdown. A 68% bust probability backs the 31-spot markdown.

Matt Hennessy

Draftanomics projects Matt Hennessy as a Day 2 pick at #36 (range #1-#75, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: James Daniels (Starter), Scott Quessenberry (Starter), Austin Corbett (Franchise). Ceiling is Austin Corbett (Franchise); floor is JJ Dielman. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 38 spots ahead of the room (board #36 vs consensus #74), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Ben Bartch

Draftanomics projects Ben Bartch as a Day 2 pick at #55 (range #36-#74, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Colby Gossett (Contributor), Jordan Morgan, Sam Jones (Bust). Ceiling is Terry Poole; floor is Colby Gossett (Contributor). The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 42 spots ahead of the room (board #55 vs consensus #97), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.