3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects K.J. Osborn (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #192 (range #166-#218, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: David Moore (Bust), Justin Watson (Starter), Tremon Smith (Bust). Ceiling is Justin Watson (Starter); floor is Austin Proehl. RAS 4.82 (48th percentile at WR). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 101 spots ahead of the room (board #192 vs consensus #293), and at a 20% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Laviska Shenault Jr. (age 21.6 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #9 (range #1-#57, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Christian Kirk (Franchise), Mike Thomas (Contributor), Devin Lucien. Ceiling is Christian Kirk (Franchise); floor is Devin Lucien. RAS 4.64 (46th percentile at WR). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a value lean: #9 against a consensus #37 is a 28-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with average-to-below athletic profile the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Darnell Mooney (age 22.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #110 (range #65-#155, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: David Moore (Bust), Devin Funchess (Franchise), Justin Watson (Starter). Ceiling is Devin Funchess (Franchise); floor is Equanimeous St. Brown (Contributor). School SP+ 7.5 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. PPA avg_all 0.385 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #110 sits within 10 spots of the room's #100 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.