2 prospects · 2020 draft
Decisive factor: 44-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 15 points lower.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects James Smith-Williams (age 22.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #180 (range #154-#206, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 21% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: John Franklin-Myers (Starter), Avery Moss (Bust), Jeremiah Ledbetter (Bust). Ceiling is John Franklin-Myers (Starter); floor is Zach Sieler (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Avery Moss, Jeremiah Ledbetter, James Looney. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 49 spots ahead of the room (board #180 vs consensus #229), and at a 21% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Jonathan Garvin (age 20.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #136 (range #134-#138, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 41 spots ahead of the room (board #136 vs consensus #177), and at a 6% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.