2 prospects · 2020 draft
Decisive factor: a bust risk 52 points lower. Reinforced by 79-pick gap on Draftanomics projection and $15M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects L'Jarius Sneed (age 23.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #142 (range #98-#186, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Rayshawn Jenkins (Bust), Miles Killebrew (Contributor), Jaquiski Tartt (Franchise). Ceiling is Jaquiski Tartt (Franchise); floor is Clayton Fejedelem (Contributor). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Rayshawn Jenkins, Treston Decoud. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #142 sits within 12 spots of the room's #130 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Vernon Scott (age 22.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #221 (range #183-#259, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 52% — elevated. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Adrian Amos (Franchise), Foyesade Oluokun (Starter), Damarious Randall (Franchise). Ceiling is Damarious Randall (Franchise); floor is Foyesade Oluokun (Starter). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #221 stands alone — and with bust risk at 52%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.