3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Thakarius Keyes (age 22.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #190 (range #188-#192, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 43% — real but not disqualifying. School SP+ 7.5 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #190 stands alone — and with bust risk at 43%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Chris Claybrooks (age 22.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #227 (range #193-#261, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 2% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Derrick Jones (Bust), Jeremy Clark (Bust), Cameron Sutton (Bust). Ceiling is Marquez White; floor is Keion Crossen (Contributor). School SP+ 18.0 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Derrick Jones, Jeremy Clark, Cameron Sutton. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #227 stands alone — and with bust risk at 2%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Chris Williamson (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #240 (range #224-#256, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Marquez White, Prince Charles Iworah (Bust), Charles Gaines (Bust). Ceiling is Tevin Mitchel; floor is Marquez White. Drafted #247 by NYG in 2020 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #240 stands alone — and with bust risk at 65%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.