3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jalen Hurts (age 21.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #94 (range #49-#139, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Marcus Mariota (Franchise), Joshua Dobbs, Lamar Jackson (Franchise). Ceiling is Marcus Mariota (Franchise); floor is Joshua Dobbs. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 12 spots below the room's consensus #82 — don't pay sticker price. The 12-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Justin Herbert (age 22.1 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #33 (range #8-#58, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Sam Darnold (Franchise), Josh Rosen (Contributor), Mitchell Trubisky (Bust). Ceiling is Sam Darnold (Franchise); floor is Josh Rosen (Contributor). 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Mitchell Trubisky, Connor Cook. Mixed signal from history. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 13 spots below the room's consensus #20 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Jordan Love (age 21.5 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #74 (range #23-#125, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Josh Rosen (Contributor), Josh Allen (Franchise), Brad Kaaya. Ceiling is Josh Allen (Franchise); floor is Brad Kaaya. PPA avg_all 0.196 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #36 and the model won't take him before #74 — a 38-spot markdown. The discount is earned — negative per-play impact leads the case against.