3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Davion Taylor (age 21.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #144 (range #92-#196, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 46% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Joel Iyiegbuniwe (Bust), Devante Downs (Bust), Shaquille Leonard (Franchise). Ceiling is Shaquille Leonard (Franchise); floor is Zaire Franklin (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Joel Iyiegbuniwe, Devante Downs, Matthew Adams. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #111 and the model won't take him before #144 — a 33-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Willie Gay Jr. (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #63 (range #13-#113, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 22% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Joel Iyiegbuniwe (Bust), Devante Downs (Bust), Azeem Victor. Ceiling is Shaquille Leonard (Franchise); floor is Azeem Victor. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Joel Iyiegbuniwe, Devante Downs, Matthew Adams. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #63 against a consensus #89 is a 26-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group bust rate the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects T.J. Brunson (age 22.4 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #100 (range #91-#109, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 10% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Elijah Lee (Bust), Tanner Vallejo (Bust), Matthew Adams (Bust). Ceiling is Zaire Franklin (Starter); floor is Elijah Lee (Bust). 4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Elijah Lee, Tanner Vallejo, Matthew Adams (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #100 stands alone — and with bust risk at 10%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.