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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2020 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (CB)
DH
Darnay Holmes
CB · UCLA
21.8 yo · 5'10" · 195 lb
MO
Michael Ojemudia
CB · Iowa
22.6 yo · 6'1" · 200 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Michael Ojemudia over Darnay Holmes.

Decisive factor: a bust risk 28 points lower.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Darnay Holmes
Predicted pick
#149
range #36–#233
Bust probability· rough estimate
33%
Consensus rank
#113
on 7 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Michael Ojemudia
Predicted pick
#147
range #44–#192
Bust probability· rough estimate
5%
Consensus rank
#133
on 5 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Darnay Holmes· CB / S
  • Michael Ojemudia· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionDarnay Holmes0
  • AthleticismDarnay Holmes38
  • AgeDarnay Holmes87
  • ConsensusMichael Ojemudia11
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Darnay Holmes50
  • Breakout ageDarnay Holmes50
  • WorkloadMichael Ojemudia100
  • RAS × productionDarnay Holmes0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Darnay Holmes
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Michael Ojemudia
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Darnay Holmes
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Michael Ojemudia
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Darnay HolmesMichael Ojemudia· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Darnay Holmes

+0.03 age; +0.02 boards with him top-100; +0.02 HS recruit rating

Michael Ojemudia

−0.03 boards with him top-100; +0.01 charting: pass-rush productivity (true pass sets), career avg; +0.01 charting true-pass-set pressures per rush career