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Draftanomics

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2020 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR, LB)
JH
John Hightower
WR · Boise St.
23.9 yo · — · —
TD
Troy Dye
LB · Oregon
23.6 yo · 6'3" · 231 lb
Tiebreaker
Medium confidence
Take Troy Dye over John Hightower.

Decisive factor: a bust risk 57 points lower. Reinforced by 29-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

John Hightower
Predicted pick
#138
range #115–#161
Bust probability
57%
0%0/3 comps
Consensus rank
#128
on 4 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
Troy Dye
Predicted pick
#109
range #66–#152
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#102
on 12 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • John Hightower· RB / WR / TE
  • Troy Dye· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJohn Hightower0
  • AthleticismJohn Hightower37
  • AgeTroy Dye23
  • ConsensusJohn Hightower20
  • Per-play impact (PPA)John Hightower50
  • Breakout ageJohn Hightower50
  • WorkloadJohn Hightower100
  • RAS × productionTroy Dye54

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
John Hightower
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling
    WR · #174
    Starter
  • Da'Ron Brown
    WR · #233
    TBD
  • Vince Mayle
    WR · #123
    Contributor
  • Dylan Cantrell
    WR · #191
    TBD
  • Jakeem Grant
    WR · #186
    Contributor
Troy Dye
  • Joel Iyiegbuniwe
    LB · #115
    Bust
  • Shaquille Leonard
    LB · #36
    Franchise
  • Peter Kalambayi
    LB · #214
    Bust
  • Vince Biegel
    LB · #108
    Bust
  • Shaun Dion Hamilton
    LB · #197
    Contributor

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

John Hightower
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.9 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Troy Dye
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.6 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Comp group bust rate
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Joel Iyiegbuniwe, Peter Kalambayi, Vince Biegel. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Snap share
John HightowerTroy Dye· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

John Hightower

Draftanomics projects John Hightower (age 23.9 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #138 (range #115-#161, wide band). Bust probability sits at 57% — elevated. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Starter), Da'Ron Brown, Vince Mayle (Contributor). Ceiling is Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Starter); floor is Da'Ron Brown. Age 23.9 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 22 spots below the room's consensus #116 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.

Troy Dye

Draftanomics projects Troy Dye (age 23.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #109 (range #66-#152, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Joel Iyiegbuniwe (Bust), Shaquille Leonard (Franchise), Peter Kalambayi (Bust). Ceiling is Shaquille Leonard (Franchise); floor is Shaun Dion Hamilton (Contributor). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Joel Iyiegbuniwe, Peter Kalambayi, Vince Biegel. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 27 spots below the room's consensus #82 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.