3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Van Jefferson (age 23.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #131 (range #85-#177, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Charone Peake (Contributor), ArDarius Stewart (Bust), Amara Darboh (Bust). Ceiling is Javon Wims (Contributor); floor is Charone Peake (Contributor). 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: ArDarius Stewart, Amara Darboh. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #87 and the model won't take him before #131 — a 44-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects James Proche (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #224 (range #205-#243, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jakeem Grant (Contributor), Jaleel Scott (Bust), Justin Hardy (Starter). Ceiling is Justin Hardy (Starter); floor is Jakeem Grant (Contributor). RAS 2.63 (26th percentile vs WR prospects in a 435-yr Combine population). Below the 30th-percentile bar that most NFL starters clear. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #164 and the model won't take him before #224 — a 60-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects John Hightower (age 23.9 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #138 (range #115-#161, wide band). Bust probability sits at 57% — elevated. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Starter), Da'Ron Brown, Vince Mayle (Contributor). Ceiling is Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Starter); floor is Da'Ron Brown. Age 23.9 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 22 spots below the room's consensus #116 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.