3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Terrell Burgess (age 21.4 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #84 (range #52-#116, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 7% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Nathan Gerry (Bust), DeShon Elliott (Starter), Tre Flowers (Starter). Ceiling is Jessie Bates III (Starter); floor is DeShon Elliott (Starter). 2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Nathan Gerry, Marcus Allen. Mixed signal from history. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #84 sits within 6 spots of the room's #90 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 7% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Josh Metellus (age 22.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #166 (range #151-#181, wide band). Bust probability sits at 11% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Rudy Ford (Bust), Tre Flowers (Starter), Natrell Jamerson (Bust). Ceiling is Tre Flowers (Starter); floor is DeShon Elliott (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Rudy Ford, Natrell Jamerson, K.J. Dillon. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 67 spots ahead of the room (board #166 vs consensus #233), and at a 11% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Antoine Brooks Jr. (age 21.5 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #85 (range #55-#115, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 48% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Tarvarius Moore (Contributor), Kavon Frazier (Contributor), Xavier Woods (Bust). Ceiling is Foyesade Oluokun (Starter); floor is Kavon Frazier (Contributor). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Xavier Woods, Shalom Luani. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 123 spots ahead of the room (board #85 vs consensus #208) — but size the bet for the 48% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.