2 prospects · 2020 draft
Decisive factor: a bust risk 20 points lower. Reinforced by a stronger historical comp arc.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Stephen Sullivan (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #253 (range #233-#273, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: C.J. Uzomah (Contributor), Nick Vannett (Starter), Mark Andrews (Starter). Ceiling is Mark Andrews (Starter); floor is C.J. Uzomah (Contributor). Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #192 and the model won't take him before #253 — a 61-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Josiah Deguara (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #246 (range #214-#278, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: George Kittle (Bust), Jaylen Samuels (Contributor), Tyler Conklin (Starter). Ceiling is Tyler Conklin (Starter); floor is Jerell Adams (Contributor). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: George Kittle, Gerald Everett. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #84 and the model won't take him before #246 — a 162-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.