3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Tyrie Cleveland (age 22.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #252 (range #220-#284, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 12% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Ricardo Louis (Starter), Malcolm Mitchell (Bust), Evan Spencer (Bust). Ceiling is Ricardo Louis (Starter); floor is Devin Fuller. 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Malcolm Mitchell, Evan Spencer. Mixed signal from history. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #252 sits within 4 spots of the room's #256 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 12% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Freddie Swain (age 21.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #241 (range #208-#274, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 8% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Devin Fuller, Malcolm Mitchell (Bust), Keith Mumphery (Starter). Ceiling is Keith Mumphery (Starter); floor is Kenny Lawler. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Malcolm Mitchell, Jordan Payton. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #241 stands alone — and with bust risk at 8%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Van Jefferson (age 23.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #131 (range #85-#177, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 9% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Charone Peake (Contributor), ArDarius Stewart (Bust), Amara Darboh (Bust). Ceiling is Javon Wims (Contributor); floor is Charone Peake (Contributor). 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: ArDarius Stewart, Amara Darboh. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #87 and the model won't take him before #131 — a 44-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.