Draftanomics
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • 2028 way-too-early
  • Draft news
  • Simulator
  • The house mock
  • Draft order
  • Trade calculator
  • The Scouting Slate
  • Sleepers & reaches
  • Movers & fallers
  • Player comps
  • Dynasty rookie board
  • Track record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Analyst leaderboard
My rankingsAccount
Get the weekly →
Draftanomics

Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

Boards
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • Sleepers
Tools
  • Mock draft simulator
  • Plays Like
  • Dynasty rookie board
Track Record
  • Year-by-year results
  • Accountability Index
  • Our board, on the record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Methodology
  • Developers · free API
  • About
Account
  • My board
  • Weekly email
Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2021 board/
  4. Compare

Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2021 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
MS
Mike Strachan
WR · Charleston (WV)
23.7 yo · — · —
DE
D'Wayne Eskridge
WR · Western Michigan
24.1 yo · — · —
SF
Simi Fehoko
WR · Stanford
23.5 yo · 6'3" · 222 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Mike Strachan
Predicted pick
#193
range #176–#210
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
D'Wayne Eskridge
Predicted pick
#42
range #12–#72
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#110
on 22 boards
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Simi Fehoko
Predicted pick
#236
range #198–#274
Bust probability
6%
0%0/3 comps
Consensus rank
#148
on 1 board
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Mike Strachan· RB / WR / TE
  • D'Wayne Eskridge· RB / WR / TE
  • Simi Fehoko· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMike Strachan0
  • AthleticismMike Strachan19
  • AgeD'Wayne Eskridge34
  • ConsensusSimi Fehoko27
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Mike Strachan50
  • Breakout ageMike Strachan50
  • WorkloadMike Strachan100
  • RAS × productionMike Strachan0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Mike Strachan
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
D'Wayne Eskridge
  • Travis Fulgham
    WR · #184
    Contributor
  • Jakeem Grant
    WR · #186
    Contributor
  • Mack Hollins
    WR · #118
    Bust
  • Cooper Kupp
    WR · #69
    Bust
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling
    WR · #174
    Starter
Simi Fehoko
  • Jalen Hurd
    WR · #67
    Bust
  • Dylan Cantrell
    WR · #191
    TBD
  • Amara Darboh
    WR · #106
    Bust
  • Devin Lucien
    WR · #225
    TBD
  • Jaleel Scott
    WR · #132
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Mike Strachan
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.7 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #223; model has him #193 — a 30-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
D'Wayne Eskridge
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 24.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 4.98 (49th percentile at WR). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Consensus skeptic
    23 boards place him at mean rank #82; model has him #42 — a 40-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Simi Fehoko
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.5 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Comp group bust rate
    3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jalen Hurd, Amara Darboh, Jaleel Scott. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    2 boards have him at mean rank #136; model has him #236 — a 100-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Snap share
Mike StrachanD'Wayne EskridgeSimi Fehoko· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Mike Strachan

Draftanomics projects Mike Strachan (age 23.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #193 (range #176-#210, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Age 23.7 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 30 spots ahead of the room (board #193 vs consensus #223), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

D'Wayne Eskridge

Draftanomics projects D'Wayne Eskridge (age 24.1 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #42 (range #12-#72, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Travis Fulgham (Contributor), Jakeem Grant (Contributor), Mack Hollins (Bust). Ceiling is Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Starter); floor is Jakeem Grant (Contributor). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Mack Hollins, Cooper Kupp. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 40 spots ahead of the room (board #42 vs consensus #82), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Simi Fehoko

Draftanomics projects Simi Fehoko (age 23.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #236 (range #198-#274, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jalen Hurd (Bust), Dylan Cantrell, Amara Darboh (Bust). Ceiling is Dylan Cantrell; floor is Devin Lucien. 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jalen Hurd, Amara Darboh, Jaleel Scott. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #136 and the model won't take him before #236 — a 100-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.