2 prospects · 2021 draft
Decisive factor: 131-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a stronger historical comp arc.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Brandin Echols (age 23.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #125 (range #98-#152, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Isaiah Johnson (Bust), Corey Ballentine (Contributor), Davontae Harris (Contributor). Ceiling is Davontae Harris (Contributor); floor is Corey Ballentine (Contributor). 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Isaiah Johnson, Prince Charles Iworah. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 75 spots ahead of the room (board #125 vs consensus #200), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Brandon Stephens (age 23.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #256 (range #227-#285, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 4% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Corey Ballentine (Contributor), Isaiah Johnson (Bust), Donnie Lewis Jr.. Ceiling is Davontae Harris (Contributor); floor is Donnie Lewis Jr.. 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Isaiah Johnson, Prince Charles Iworah. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 20 spots below the room's consensus #236 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.