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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2021 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (DL)
JM
Jonathan Marshall
DL · Arkansas
23.6 yo · 6'3" · 310 lb
BB
Boogie Basham
DL · Wake Forest
23.4 yo · — · —
TS
Tedarrell Slaton
DL · Florida
23.6 yo · 6'4" · 330 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Jonathan Marshall
Predicted pick
#167
range #113–#221
Bust probability
0%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Boogie Basham
Predicted pick
#207
range #190–#224
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
Tedarrell Slaton
Predicted pick
#194
range #159–#229
Bust probability
0%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Jonathan Marshall· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Boogie Basham· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Tedarrell Slaton· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJonathan Marshall0
  • AthleticismJonathan Marshall19
  • AgeBoogie Basham32
  • ConsensusJonathan Marshall13
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Jonathan Marshall50
  • Breakout ageJonathan Marshall50
  • WorkloadJonathan Marshall100
  • RAS × productionBoogie Basham30

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Dakota AllenLB · Bust→ shared byJonathan MarshallTedarrell Slaton
Jonathan Marshall
  • Renell Wren
    DT · #125
    Bust
  • Dakota Allenshared
    LB · #251
    Bust
  • Sebastian Joseph-Day
    DT · #195
    Starter
  • L.J. Collier
    EDGE · #29
    Starter
  • P.J. Johnson
    EDGE · #229
    TBD
Boogie Basham
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Tedarrell Slaton
  • Dontavius Russell
    DT · #235
    Bust
  • Vince Biegel
    LB · #108
    Bust
  • Demarcus Christmas
    DT · #209
    TBD
  • Byron Cowart
    DT · #159
    Contributor
  • Dakota Allenshared
    LB · #251
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Jonathan Marshall
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.6 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #243; model has him #167 — a 76-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Comp group has bust risk
    2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Renell Wren, Dakota Allen. Mixed signal from history.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Boogie Basham
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    1 board have him at mean rank #43; model has him #207 — a 164-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
Tedarrell Slaton
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.6 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 3.97 (39th percentile at DL). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #333; model has him #194 — a 139-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Snap share
Jonathan MarshallBoogie BashamTedarrell Slaton· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Jonathan Marshall

Draftanomics projects Jonathan Marshall (age 23.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #167 (range #113-#221, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Renell Wren (Bust), Dakota Allen (Bust), Sebastian Joseph-Day (Starter). Ceiling is L.J. Collier (Starter); floor is P.J. Johnson. Age 23.6 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 76 spots ahead of the room (board #167 vs consensus #243), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Boogie Basham

Draftanomics projects Boogie Basham (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #207 (range #190-#224, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #43 and the model won't take him before #207 — a 164-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.

Tedarrell Slaton

Draftanomics projects Tedarrell Slaton (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #194 (range #159-#229, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Dontavius Russell (Bust), Vince Biegel (Bust), Demarcus Christmas. Ceiling is Byron Cowart (Contributor); floor is Demarcus Christmas. 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Dontavius Russell, Vince Biegel, Dakota Allen. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 139 spots ahead of the room (board #194 vs consensus #333), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.