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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2021 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
TN
Tre Nixon
WR · Central Florida
23.3 yo · 6'0" · 187 lb
SF
Simi Fehoko
WR · Stanford
23.5 yo · 6'3" · 222 lb
Tiebreaker
Low confidence — essentially tied
Truly tied on the model.

Tre Nixon and Simi Fehoko project within 8 picks of each other, and neither bust risk nor the historical comps can separate them. Take the one at the position of greater need.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Tre Nixon
Predicted pick
#149
range #126–#172
Bust probability
65%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$12Mmodel
Simi Fehoko
Predicted pick
#236
range #198–#274
Bust probability
6%
0%0/3 comps
Consensus rank
#148
on 1 board
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Tre Nixon· RB / WR / TE
  • Simi Fehoko· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionTre Nixon0
  • AthleticismTre Nixon19
  • AgeSimi Fehoko27
  • ConsensusTre Nixon27
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Tre Nixon50
  • Breakout ageTre Nixon50
  • WorkloadTre Nixon100
  • RAS × productionTre Nixon75

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Amara DarbohWR · Bust→ shared byTre NixonSimi Fehoko
  • Jaleel ScottWR · Bust→ shared byTre NixonSimi Fehoko
Tre Nixon
  • J'Mon Moore
    WR · #133
    Bust
  • Amara Darbohshared
    WR · #106
    Bust
  • Jaleel Scottshared
    WR · #132
    Bust
  • Marcus Green
    WR · #203
    TBD
  • Malcolm Mitchell
    WR · #112
    Bust
Simi Fehoko
  • Jalen Hurd
    WR · #67
    Bust
  • Dylan Cantrell
    WR · #191
    TBD
  • Amara Darbohshared
    WR · #106
    Bust
  • Devin Lucien
    WR · #225
    TBD
  • Jaleel Scottshared
    WR · #132
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Tre Nixon
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #242 by NWE in 2021 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.3 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #315; model has him #149 — a 166-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Simi Fehoko
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.5 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Comp group bust rate
    3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jalen Hurd, Amara Darboh, Jaleel Scott. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    2 boards have him at mean rank #136; model has him #236 — a 100-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Snap share
Tre NixonSimi Fehoko· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Tre Nixon

Draftanomics projects Tre Nixon (age 23.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #149 (range #126-#172, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: J'Mon Moore (Bust), Amara Darboh (Bust), Jaleel Scott (Bust). Ceiling is Marcus Green; floor is J'Mon Moore (Bust). Drafted #242 by NWE in 2021 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 166 spots ahead of the room (board #149 vs consensus #315) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.

Simi Fehoko

Draftanomics projects Simi Fehoko (age 23.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #236 (range #198-#274, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jalen Hurd (Bust), Dylan Cantrell, Amara Darboh (Bust). Ceiling is Dylan Cantrell; floor is Devin Lucien. 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jalen Hurd, Amara Darboh, Jaleel Scott. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #136 and the model won't take him before #236 — a 100-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.