3 prospects · 2021 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Boogie Basham (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #207 (range #190-#224, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #43 and the model won't take him before #207 — a 164-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Jonathan Marshall (age 23.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #167 (range #113-#221, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Renell Wren (Bust), Dakota Allen (Bust), Sebastian Joseph-Day (Starter). Ceiling is L.J. Collier (Starter); floor is P.J. Johnson. Age 23.6 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 76 spots ahead of the room (board #167 vs consensus #243), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Bobby Brown (age 20.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #202 (range #167-#237, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Cortez Broughton (Bust), Joe Schobert (Contributor), Chris Covington (Bust). Ceiling is Joe Schobert (Contributor); floor is Leon Jacobs (Contributor). 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Cortez Broughton, Chris Covington. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #94 and the model won't take him before #202 — a 108-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.