3 prospects · 2021 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Daelin Hayes (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #196 (range #173-#219, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Kendell Beckwith (Bust), Kylie Fitts (Bust), Drue Tranquill (Starter). Ceiling is Drue Tranquill (Starter); floor is Kylie Fitts (Bust). School SP+ 21.0 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. 4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Kendell Beckwith, Kylie Fitts, Daeshon Hall (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #117 and the model won't take him before #196 — a 79-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Chauncey Golston (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #205 (range #190-#220, wide band). Bust probability sits at 4% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Blake Cashman (Starter), Dadi Nicolas (Bust), Devante Bond (Bust). Ceiling is Andrew Van Ginkel (Starter); floor is Blake Cashman (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Dadi Nicolas, Devante Bond, Trevon Young. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 28 spots below the room's consensus #177 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Rashad Weaver (age 23.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #156 (range #117-#195, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 10% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jordan Brailford (Bust), Micah Kiser (Contributor), Blake Cashman (Starter). Ceiling is Josey Jewell (Starter); floor is Micah Kiser (Contributor). Age 23.5 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #93 and the model won't take him before #156 — a 63-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.