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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2021 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (CB)
DL
Deommodore Lenoir
CB · Oregon
21.6 yo · 5'10" · 199 lb
SW
Shaun Wade
CB · Ohio St.
22.6 yo · 6'0" · 196 lb
RW
Rachad Wildgoose
CB · Wisconsin
21.3 yo · 5'11" · 197 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Deommodore Lenoir
Predicted pick
#213
range #182–#244
Bust probability· rough estimate
24%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$19Mmodel
Shaun Wade
Predicted pick
#183
range #140–#226
Bust probability· rough estimate
63%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
#84
on 5 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Rachad Wildgoose
Predicted pick
#255
range #223–#287
Bust probability· rough estimate
63%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Deommodore Lenoir· CB / S
  • Shaun Wade· CB / S
  • Rachad Wildgoose· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionDeommodore Lenoir0
  • AthleticismDeommodore Lenoir21
  • AgeDeommodore Lenoir87
  • ConsensusShaun Wade28
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Deommodore Lenoir50
  • Breakout ageDeommodore Lenoir50
  • WorkloadDeommodore Lenoir100
  • RAS × productionDeommodore Lenoir40

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Jourdan LewisCB · Bust→ shared byDeommodore LenoirShaun Wade
  • Kendall SheffieldCB · Contributor→ shared byDeommodore LenoirShaun Wade
Deommodore Lenoir
  • Duke Dawson
    CB · #56
    Contributor
  • Iman Marshall
    CB · #127
    Bust
  • Jourdan Lewisshared
    CB · #92
    Bust
  • Blake Countess
    CB · #196
    Contributor
  • Kendall Sheffieldshared
    CB · #111
    Contributor
Shaun Wade
  • Kendall Sheffieldshared
    CB · #111
    Contributor
  • Cyrus Jones
    CB · #60
    Bust
  • Jourdan Lewisshared
    CB · #92
    Bust
  • Kevon Seymour
    CB · #218
    Starter
  • Gareon Conley
    CB · #24
    Bust
Rachad Wildgoose
  • Jordan Miller
    CB · #172
    Bust
  • Cameron Sutton
    CB · #94
    Bust
  • Jeremy Clark
    CB · #197
    Bust
  • Greg Stroman
    CB · #241
    Contributor
  • Rashad Fenton
    CB · #201
    Contributor

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Deommodore Lenoir
Risks
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 4.09 (40th percentile at CB). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #319; model has him #213 — a 106-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Comp group bust rate
    2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Iman Marshall, Jourdan Lewis. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Shaun Wade
Risks
  • Comp group bust rate
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Cyrus Jones, Jourdan Lewis, Gareon Conley. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    6 boards have him at mean rank #80; model has him #183 — a 103-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
Rachad Wildgoose
Risks
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 4.16 (41th percentile at CB). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Comp group bust rate
    3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jordan Miller, Cameron Sutton, Jeremy Clark. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
  • Below-cohort college production
    Position-cohort z-score on production composite is -1.28 — well below the secondary average. Raw box-score output didn't keep pace with peers.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    1 board have him at mean rank #124; model has him #255 — a 131-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Snap share
Deommodore LenoirShaun WadeRachad Wildgoose· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Deommodore Lenoir

Draftanomics projects Deommodore Lenoir (age 21.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #213 (range #182-#244, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 24% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Duke Dawson (Contributor), Iman Marshall (Bust), Jourdan Lewis (Bust). Ceiling is Duke Dawson (Contributor); floor is Blake Countess (Contributor). 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Iman Marshall, Jourdan Lewis. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 106 spots ahead of the room (board #213 vs consensus #319), and at a 24% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Shaun Wade

Draftanomics projects Shaun Wade (age 22.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #183 (range #140-#226, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 63% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Kendall Sheffield (Contributor), Cyrus Jones (Bust), Jourdan Lewis (Bust). Ceiling is Kevon Seymour (Starter); floor is Kendall Sheffield (Contributor). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Cyrus Jones, Jourdan Lewis, Gareon Conley. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #80 and the model won't take him before #183 — a 103-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.

Rachad Wildgoose

Draftanomics projects Rachad Wildgoose (age 21.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #255 (range #223-#287, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 63% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jordan Miller (Bust), Cameron Sutton (Bust), Jeremy Clark (Bust). Ceiling is Rashad Fenton (Contributor); floor is Greg Stroman (Contributor). 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jordan Miller, Cameron Sutton, Jeremy Clark. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #124 and the model won't take him before #255 — a 131-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.