3 prospects · 2021 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Deommodore Lenoir (age 21.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #213 (range #182-#244, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 24% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Duke Dawson (Contributor), Iman Marshall (Bust), Jourdan Lewis (Bust). Ceiling is Duke Dawson (Contributor); floor is Blake Countess (Contributor). 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Iman Marshall, Jourdan Lewis. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 106 spots ahead of the room (board #213 vs consensus #319), and at a 24% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Marco Wilson (age 22.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #170 (range #123-#217, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 28% — manageable. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jamel Dean (Starter), David Long (Contributor), Ken Webster (Backup). Ceiling is Jamel Dean (Starter); floor is Ken Webster (Backup). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #98 and the model won't take him before #170 — a 72-spot markdown. The 72-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Shaun Wade (age 22.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #183 (range #140-#226, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 63% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Kendall Sheffield (Contributor), Cyrus Jones (Bust), Jourdan Lewis (Bust). Ceiling is Kevon Seymour (Starter); floor is Kendall Sheffield (Contributor). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Cyrus Jones, Jourdan Lewis, Gareon Conley. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #80 and the model won't take him before #183 — a 103-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.