3 prospects · 2021 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Roy Lopez (age 23.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #223 (range #194-#252, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jullian Taylor (Bust), Sebastian Joseph-Day (Starter), Dakota Allen (Bust). Ceiling is E.J. Speed (Starter); floor is Sebastian Joseph-Day (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jullian Taylor, Dakota Allen, Renell Wren. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 124 spots ahead of the room (board #223 vs consensus #347), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Jonathan Marshall (age 23.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #167 (range #113-#221, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Renell Wren (Bust), Dakota Allen (Bust), Sebastian Joseph-Day (Starter). Ceiling is L.J. Collier (Starter); floor is P.J. Johnson. Age 23.6 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 76 spots ahead of the room (board #167 vs consensus #243), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Khyiris Tonga (age 24.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #191 (range #142-#240, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 4% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Treyvon Hester (Bust), Marquis Haynes (Contributor), Nathan Shepherd (Contributor). Ceiling is L.J. Collier (Starter); floor is Marquis Haynes (Contributor). Age 24.8 at draft. Players entering the league past 24 hit fewer career milestones — the developmental window is already compressed before they take an NFL snap. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 22 spots below the room's consensus #169 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.