3 prospects · 2021 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Marquez Stevenson (age 23.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #155 (range #112-#198, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 26% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: J'Mon Moore (Bust), Devin Lucien, Diontae Johnson (Franchise). Ceiling is Diontae Johnson (Franchise); floor is Dillon Mitchell. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: J'Mon Moore, Jaleel Scott. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #106 and the model won't take him before #155 — a 49-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Dez Fitzpatrick (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #254 (range #227-#281, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 62% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: J'Mon Moore (Bust), Devin Lucien, Jaleel Scott (Bust). Ceiling is Jakeem Grant (Contributor); floor is Devin Lucien. 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: J'Mon Moore, Jaleel Scott, Mack Hollins. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #138 and the model won't take him before #254 — a 116-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Josh Palmer (age 21.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #118 (range #72-#164, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Mike Thomas (Contributor), Ryan Switzer (Bust), Marcus Green. Ceiling is Christian Kirk (Franchise); floor is Dillon Mitchell. 1 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Ryan Switzer. Mixed signal from history. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 20 spots below the room's consensus #98 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.