3 prospects · 2021 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Nick Bolton (age 21.1 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #48 (range #4-#92, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Emeke Egbule (Bust), Bobby Okereke (Starter), Deshaun Davis. Ceiling is Shaquille Leonard (Franchise); floor is Deshaun Davis. RAS 2.55 (25th percentile vs LB prospects in a 35-yr Combine population). Below the 30th-percentile bar that most NFL starters clear. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #48 sits within 7 spots of the room's #55 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 6% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Jaylen Twyman (age 21.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #179 (range #146-#212, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 46% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Shareef Miller (Bust), Austin Johnson (Starter), Jaleel Johnson (Bust). Ceiling is Austin Johnson (Starter); floor is Hassan Ridgeway (Starter). Drafted #199 by MIN in 2021 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #87 and the model won't take him before #179 — a 92-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Tutu Atwell (age 21.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #144 (range #110-#178, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 33% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Pharoh Cooper (Contributor), Mike Thomas (Contributor), Ryan Switzer (Bust). Ceiling is Pharoh Cooper (Contributor); floor is Dillon Mitchell. RAS 4.24 (42th percentile at WR). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #73 and the model won't take him before #144 — a 71-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.