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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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  3. 2021 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2021 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (DT)
AM
Alim McNeill
DT · North Carolina St.
21.0 yo · — · —
DN
Daviyon Nixon
DT · Iowa
22.4 yo · 6'3" · 313 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Alim McNeill over Daviyon Nixon.

Decisive factor: 77-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 25 points lower and $9M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Alim McNeill
Predicted pick
#35
range #1–#168
Bust probability
22%
Consensus rank
#93
on 22 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$14Mmodel
Daviyon Nixon
Predicted pick
#112
range #32–#220
Bust probability
46%
Consensus rank
#59
on 23 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Alim McNeill· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Daviyon Nixon· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionAlim McNeill0
  • AthleticismAlim McNeill19
  • AgeAlim McNeill82
  • ConsensusDaviyon Nixon18
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Alim McNeill50
  • Breakout ageAlim McNeill50
  • WorkloadAlim McNeill100
  • RAS × productionAlim McNeill30

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Alim McNeill
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Daviyon Nixon
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Alim McNeill
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Daviyon Nixon
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Alim McNeillDaviyon Nixon· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Alim McNeill

+0.07 boards with him top-100; +0.03 HS recruit rating; +0.03 charting def grade mean

Daviyon Nixon

+0.07 boards with him top-100; −0.02 charting total career snaps; +0.02 age