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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2021 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
IS
Ihmir Smith-Marsette
WR · Iowa
21.7 yo · 6'0" · 181 lb
AB
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR · USC
21.5 yo · 5'11" · 197 lb
TA
Tutu Atwell
WR · Louisville
21.6 yo · 5'8" · 155 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Ihmir Smith-Marsette
Predicted pick
#127
range #53–#225
Bust probability
12%
Consensus rank
#114
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Predicted pick
#39
range #3–#172
Bust probability
4%
Consensus rank
#76
on 22 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$33Mmodel
Tutu Atwell
Predicted pick
#144
range #64–#252
Bust probability
33%
Consensus rank
#87
on 7 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$8Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Ihmir Smith-Marsette· RB / WR / TE
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown· RB / WR / TE
  • Tutu Atwell· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionIhmir Smith-Marsette0
  • AthleticismIhmir Smith-Marsette19
  • AgeIhmir Smith-Marsette91
  • ConsensusIhmir Smith-Marsette27
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Ihmir Smith-Marsette50
  • Breakout ageIhmir Smith-Marsette50
  • WorkloadIhmir Smith-Marsette100
  • RAS × productionIhmir Smith-Marsette0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Ihmir Smith-Marsette
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Tutu Atwell
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Ihmir Smith-Marsette
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Tutu Atwell
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Ihmir Smith-MarsetteAmon-Ra St. BrownTutu Atwell· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Ihmir Smith-Marsette

−0.04 boards with him top-100; +0.03 charting: intermediate-route grade, final season; −0.03 Power-5 production share

Amon-Ra St. Brown

+0.09 boards with him top-100; −0.03 Power-5 production share; +0.03 charting gap run block grade

Tutu Atwell

+0.03 HS recruit rating; +0.03 charting: intermediate-route grade, final season; −0.02 charting deep completion pct