3 prospects · 2021 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Ihmir Smith-Marsette (age 21.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #127 (range #76-#178, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Dante Pettis (Contributor), Ryan Switzer (Bust), Deon Cain (Contributor). Ceiling is Dante Pettis (Contributor); floor is Isaiah Ford. 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Ryan Switzer, Curtis Samuel. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #127 and the room's #127 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Anthony Schwartz (age 20.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #140 (range #104-#176, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 57% — elevated. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Rodney Adams, Ryan Switzer (Bust), Russell Gage (Starter). Ceiling is Russell Gage (Starter); floor is Deon Cain (Contributor). RAS 4.73 (47th percentile at WR). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #86 and the model won't take him before #140 — a 54-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Seth Williams (age 21.1 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #87 (range #37-#137, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Isaiah Ford, Dante Pettis (Contributor), Ryan Switzer (Bust). Ceiling is Dante Pettis (Contributor); floor is Dillon Mitchell. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #87 sits within 6 spots of the room's #93 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.