2 prospects · 2021 draft
Decisive factor: $6M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jamar Johnson (age 21.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #143 (range #105-#181, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 28% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Greg Stroman (Contributor), Cameron Sutton (Bust), Jordan Miller (Bust). Ceiling is Isaac Yiadom (Contributor); floor is Greg Stroman (Contributor). 40-yard dash of 4.58s — historically corners above 4.55s rarely become NFL starters. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #86 and the model won't take him before #143 — a 57-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Jamien Sherwood (age 21.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #141 (range #100-#182, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 27% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Rashad Fenton (Contributor), Greg Stroman (Contributor), Daryl Worley (Starter). Ceiling is Daryl Worley (Starter); floor is Greg Stroman (Contributor). 40-yard dash of 4.76s — historically corners above 4.55s rarely become NFL starters. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 46 spots ahead of the room (board #141 vs consensus #187), and at a 27% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.