3 prospects · 2021 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Tedarrell Slaton (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #194 (range #159-#229, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Dontavius Russell (Bust), Vince Biegel (Bust), Demarcus Christmas. Ceiling is Byron Cowart (Contributor); floor is Demarcus Christmas. 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Dontavius Russell, Vince Biegel, Dakota Allen. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 139 spots ahead of the room (board #194 vs consensus #333), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Jay Tufele (age 21.8 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #98 (range #68-#128, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 45% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Montravius Adams (Bust), Caleb Brantley (Bust), Daylon Mack (Bust). Ceiling is Chad Thomas (Contributor); floor is Caleb Brantley (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Montravius Adams, Caleb Brantley, Daylon Mack (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 16 spots below the room's consensus #82 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Bobby Brown (age 20.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #202 (range #167-#237, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Cortez Broughton (Bust), Joe Schobert (Contributor), Chris Covington (Bust). Ceiling is Joe Schobert (Contributor); floor is Leon Jacobs (Contributor). 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Cortez Broughton, Chris Covington. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #94 and the model won't take him before #202 — a 108-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.