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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2021 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (DT)
QB
Quinton Bohanna
DT · Kentucky
22.1 yo · — · —
TS
Tyler Shelvin
DT · LSU
22.8 yo · 6'2" · 350 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Quinton Bohanna over Tyler Shelvin.

Decisive factor: a bust risk 35 points lower.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Quinton Bohanna
Predicted pick
#119
range #95–#143
Bust probability
10%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Tyler Shelvin
Predicted pick
#126
range #91–#161
Bust probability
45%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#75
on 6 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Quinton Bohanna· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Tyler Shelvin· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionQuinton Bohanna94
  • AthleticismQuinton Bohanna19
  • AgeQuinton Bohanna89
  • ConsensusQuinton Bohanna28
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Quinton Bohanna50
  • Breakout ageQuinton Bohanna50
  • WorkloadTyler Shelvin100
  • RAS × productionQuinton Bohanna30

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Quinton Bohanna
  • Bilal Nichols
    DT · #145
    Starter
  • Kendrick Norton
    DT · #242
    Bust
  • Chris Slayton
    DT · #245
    Bust
  • Kahlil McKenzie
    DT · #198
    Bust
  • Sebastian Joseph-Day
    DT · #195
    Starter
Tyler Shelvin
  • Caleb Brantley
    DT · #185
    Bust
  • Montravius Adams
    DT · #93
    Bust
  • Eddie Vanderdoes
    DT · #88
    Bust
  • Nazair Jones
    DT · #102
    Bust
  • Elijah Qualls
    DT · #214
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Quinton Bohanna
Risks
  • Athletic profile below NFL threshold
    RAS 2.73 (27th percentile vs DT prospects in a 312-yr Combine population). Below the 30th-percentile bar that most NFL starters clear.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #197; model has him #119 — a 78-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Comp group bust rate
    3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Kendrick Norton, Chris Slayton, Kahlil McKenzie. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Tyler Shelvin
Risks
  • Athletic profile below NFL threshold
    RAS 2.42 (24th percentile vs DT prospects in a 312-yr Combine population). Below the 30th-percentile bar that most NFL starters clear.
  • Comp group bust rate
    5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Caleb Brantley, Montravius Adams, Eddie Vanderdoes (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    7 boards have him at mean rank #78; model has him #126 — a 48-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Snap share
Quinton BohannaTyler Shelvin· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Quinton Bohanna

Draftanomics projects Quinton Bohanna (age 22.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #119 (range #95-#143, wide band). Bust probability sits at 10% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Bilal Nichols (Starter), Kendrick Norton (Bust), Chris Slayton (Bust). Ceiling is Bilal Nichols (Starter); floor is Sebastian Joseph-Day (Starter). RAS 2.73 (27th percentile vs DT prospects in a 312-yr Combine population). Below the 30th-percentile bar that most NFL starters clear. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 78 spots ahead of the room (board #119 vs consensus #197), and at a 10% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Tyler Shelvin

Draftanomics projects Tyler Shelvin (age 22.8 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #126 (range #91-#161, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 45% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Caleb Brantley (Bust), Montravius Adams (Bust), Eddie Vanderdoes (Bust). Ceiling is Eddie Vanderdoes (Bust); floor is Elijah Qualls (Bust). RAS 2.42 (24th percentile vs DT prospects in a 312-yr Combine population). Below the 30th-percentile bar that most NFL starters clear. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #78 and the model won't take him before #126 — a 48-spot markdown. The discount is earned — athletic profile below nfl threshold leads the case against.