3 prospects · 2021 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Cole Van Lanen as a Day 3 dart throw at #224 (range #196-#252, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 13% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Zach Banner, Dru Samia (Backup), Halapoulivaati Vaitai. Ceiling is Zach Banner; floor is Dru Samia (Backup). 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Dru Samia, Jackson Barton, Lamont Gaillard. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 62 spots ahead of the room (board #224 vs consensus #286), and at a 13% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Michal Menet as a mid-round flyer at #137 (range #91-#183, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 78% — scary. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Rod Taylor, Javon Patterson (Bust), Max Tuerk. Ceiling is Wyatt Teller (Franchise); floor is Rod Taylor. 1 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Javon Patterson. Mixed signal from history. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 61 spots ahead of the room (board #137 vs consensus #198) — but size the bet for the 78% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects Liam Eichenberg as a Day 2 pick at #41 (range #1-#100, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Isaiah Prince (Contributor), Isaiah Wynn (Starter), Vadal Alexander. Ceiling is Isaiah Wynn (Starter); floor is Vadal Alexander. School SP+ 21.0 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #41 sits within 9 spots of the room's #50 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.