3 prospects · 2021 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Kary Vincent Jr. (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #226 (range #187-#265, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 40% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Duke Dawson (Contributor), KeiVarae Russell (Contributor), Will Redmond. Ceiling is Kevon Seymour (Starter); floor is KeiVarae Russell (Contributor). RAS 4.50 (45th percentile at CB). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #86 and the model won't take him before #226 — a 140-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Walker Little as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #84 (range #50-#118, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 10% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Chuma Edoga (Contributor), Brandon Shell, Shon Coleman. Ceiling is Shon Coleman; floor is Brandon Shell. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #84 sits within 8 spots of the room's #76 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 10% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Jay Tufele (age 21.8 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #98 (range #68-#128, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 45% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Montravius Adams (Bust), Caleb Brantley (Bust), Daylon Mack (Bust). Ceiling is Chad Thomas (Contributor); floor is Caleb Brantley (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Montravius Adams, Caleb Brantley, Daylon Mack (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 16 spots below the room's consensus #82 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.