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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2021 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (EDGE)
MS
Marquiss Spencer
EDGE · Mississippi St.
23.8 yo · — · —
PJ
Patrick Johnson
EDGE · Tulane
23.3 yo · 6'6" · 240 lb
Tiebreaker
Low confidence — essentially tied
Truly tied on the model.

Marquiss Spencer and Patrick Johnson project within 8 picks of each other, and neither bust risk nor the historical comps can separate them. Take the one at the position of greater need.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Marquiss Spencer
Predicted pick
#220
range #183–#257
Bust probability
51%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Patrick Johnson
Predicted pick
#211
range #168–#254
Bust probability
20%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#136
on 1 board
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Marquiss Spencer· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Patrick Johnson· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMarquiss Spencer0
  • AthleticismMarquiss Spencer19
  • AgeMarquiss Spencer35
  • ConsensusPatrick Johnson28
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Marquiss Spencer50
  • Breakout ageMarquiss Spencer50
  • WorkloadMarquiss Spencer100
  • RAS × productionMarquiss Spencer30

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • John CominskyEDGE · Contributor→ shared byMarquiss SpencerPatrick Johnson
Marquiss Spencer
  • Gerri Green
    EDGE · #199
    Bust
  • Matt Judon
    EDGE · #146
    Starter
  • John Cominskyshared
    EDGE · #135
    Contributor
  • Ronald Blair
    EDGE · #142
    Starter
  • L.J. Collier
    EDGE · #29
    Starter
Patrick Johnson
  • Tarell Basham
    EDGE · #80
    Bust
  • Duke Ejiofor
    EDGE · #177
    Bust
  • John Cominskyshared
    EDGE · #135
    Contributor
  • Jordan Brailford
    EDGE · #253
    Bust
  • Justin Lawler
    EDGE · #244
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Marquiss Spencer
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.8 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 4.27 (42th percentile at EDGE). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #316; model has him #220 — a 96-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Matt Judon, Ronald Blair, L.J. Collier. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Patrick Johnson
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.3 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Comp group bust rate
    4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Tarell Basham, Duke Ejiofor, Jordan Brailford (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    2 boards have him at mean rank #170; model has him #211 — a 40-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Snap share
Marquiss SpencerPatrick Johnson· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Marquiss Spencer

Draftanomics projects Marquiss Spencer (age 23.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #220 (range #183-#257, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 51% — elevated. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Gerri Green (Bust), Matt Judon (Starter), John Cominsky (Contributor). Ceiling is L.J. Collier (Starter); floor is John Cominsky (Contributor). Age 23.8 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 96 spots ahead of the room (board #220 vs consensus #316) — but size the bet for the 51% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.

Patrick Johnson

Draftanomics projects Patrick Johnson (age 23.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #211 (range #168-#254, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Tarell Basham (Bust), Duke Ejiofor (Bust), John Cominsky (Contributor). Ceiling is John Cominsky (Contributor); floor is Jordan Brailford (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Tarell Basham, Duke Ejiofor, Jordan Brailford (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #170 and the model won't take him before #211 — a 40-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.