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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2021 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
KH
Kylin Hill
RB · Mississippi St.
22.7 yo · 5'10" · 214 lb
MC
Michael Carter
RB · North Carolina
22.0 yo · 5'7" · 201 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Michael Carter over Kylin Hill.

Decisive factor: 191-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 57 points lower.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Kylin Hill
Predicted pick
#214
range #182–#246
Bust probability
57%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#67
on 2 boards
Career arc
Backup
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Michael Carter
Predicted pick
#23
range #1–#54
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#86
on 22 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · 1st Round
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Kylin Hill· RB / WR / TE
  • Michael Carter· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionKylin Hill0
  • AthleticismKylin Hill19
  • AgeKylin Hill64
  • ConsensusKylin Hill27
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Kylin Hill50
  • Breakout ageKylin Hill50
  • WorkloadKylin Hill100
  • RAS × productionMichael Carter56

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Kylin Hill
  • Kalen Ballage
    RB · #131
    Contributor
  • Mark Walton
    RB · #112
    Backup
  • John Kelly
    RB · #176
    Bust
  • Justin Jackson
    RB · #251
    Backup
  • Jordan Howard
    RB · #150
    Starter
Michael Carter
  • Paul Perkins
    RB · #149
    Starter
  • Joe Mixon
    RB · #48
    Bust
  • Marlon Mack
    RB · #143
    Bust
  • Trayveon Williams
    RB · #182
    Bust
  • C.J. Prosise
    RB · #90
    Starter

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Kylin Hill
Risks
  • Comp group bust rate
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Mark Walton, John Kelly, Justin Jackson. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.270 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    3 boards have him at mean rank #118; model has him #214 — a 96-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
Michael Carter
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    23 boards place him at mean rank #77; model has him #23 — a 54-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Comp group bust rate
    3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Joe Mixon, Marlon Mack, Trayveon Williams. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.403 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Snap share
Kylin HillMichael Carter· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Kylin Hill

Draftanomics projects Kylin Hill (age 22.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #214 (range #182-#246, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 57% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Kalen Ballage (Contributor), Mark Walton (Backup), John Kelly (Bust). Ceiling is Jordan Howard (Starter); floor is Justin Jackson (Backup). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Mark Walton, John Kelly, Justin Jackson. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #118 and the model won't take him before #214 — a 96-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.

Michael Carter

Draftanomics projects Michael Carter (age 22.0 at draft) as a first-round pick at #23 (range #1-#54, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Paul Perkins (Starter), Joe Mixon (Bust), Marlon Mack (Bust). Ceiling is C.J. Prosise (Starter); floor is Paul Perkins (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Joe Mixon, Marlon Mack, Trayveon Williams. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 54 spots ahead of the room (board #23 vs consensus #77), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.