2 prospects · 2021 draft
Buddy Johnson and Pete Werner project within 8 picks of each other, and neither bust risk nor the historical comps can separate them. Take the one at the position of greater need.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Buddy Johnson (age 22.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #129 (range #95-#163, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 41% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: David Long (Starter), Cody Barton (Starter), Kenny Young (Contributor). Ceiling is Cody Barton (Starter); floor is Kenny Young (Contributor). The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 164 spots ahead of the room (board #129 vs consensus #293), and at a 41% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Pete Werner (age 21.9 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #101 (range #68-#134, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 32% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Shaun Dion Hamilton (Contributor), Ben Burr-Kirven (Bust), Vosean Joseph. Ceiling is Vosean Joseph; floor is Azeem Victor. 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Ben Burr-Kirven, Duke Riley. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 14 spots below the room's consensus #87 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.