3 prospects · 2021 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Josh Ball as a Day 3 dart throw at #233 (range #206-#260, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 78% — scary. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Adam Bisnowaty, Brian Allen (Bust), Le'Raven Clark. Ceiling is Mason Cole (Franchise); floor is Adam Bisnowaty. School SP+ 9.5 (SUN BELT). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. Drafted #138 by DAL in 2021 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #134 and the model won't take him before #233 — a 99-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Kendrick Green as a mid-round flyer at #116 (range #86-#146, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Will Richardson (Contributor), Tytus Howard (Franchise), Martinas Rankin (Contributor). Ceiling is Tytus Howard (Franchise); floor is Joe Haeg. School SP+ rating -5.4 (well below FBS median of 0). College production may not translate against NFL-quality DBs/pass-rushers. Schedule rank #38 (1=hardest). The call is a lean fade: the model sits 22 spots below the room's consensus #94 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — small-school competition leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Michal Menet as a mid-round flyer at #137 (range #91-#183, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 78% — scary. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Rod Taylor, Javon Patterson (Bust), Max Tuerk. Ceiling is Wyatt Teller (Franchise); floor is Rod Taylor. 1 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Javon Patterson. Mixed signal from history. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 61 spots ahead of the room (board #137 vs consensus #198) — but size the bet for the 78% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.