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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2021 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2021 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (TE)
PF
Pat Freiermuth
TE · Penn St.
22.5 yo · 6'5" · 251 lb
KP
Kyle Pitts
TE · Florida
20.6 yo · 6'5" · 245 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Kyle Pitts over Pat Freiermuth.

Decisive factor: 31-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by $8M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV and a bust risk 6 points lower.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Pat Freiermuth
Predicted pick
#46
range #24–#83
Bust probability
7%
Consensus rank
#46
on 24 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$14Mmodel
Kyle Pitts
Predicted pick
#15
range #1–#58
Bust probability
1%
Consensus rank
#2
on 28 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$22Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Pat Freiermuth· RB / WR / TE
  • Kyle Pitts· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionPat Freiermuth0
  • AthleticismKyle Pitts57
  • AgePat Freiermuth64
  • ConsensusKyle Pitts100
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Pat Freiermuth50
  • Breakout agePat Freiermuth50
  • WorkloadPat Freiermuth100
  • RAS × productionPat Freiermuth0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Pat Freiermuth
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Kyle Pitts
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Pat Freiermuth
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Kyle Pitts
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Pat FreiermuthKyle Pitts· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Pat Freiermuth

+0.10 boards with him top-100; +0.03 boards with him top-50; +0.02 HS recruit rating

Kyle Pitts

+0.11 boards with him top-100; +0.10 scout consensus; −0.05 charting: deep-route grade, final season