2 prospects · 2021 draft
Joseph Ossai and Zaven Collins project within 8 picks of each other, and neither bust risk nor the historical comps can separate them. Take the one at the position of greater need.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Joseph Ossai (age 21.0 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #57 (range #15-#99, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Devin White (Starter), Devin Bush Jr. (Starter), Cody Barton (Starter). Ceiling is Devin White (Starter); floor is Blake Cashman (Starter). Drafted #69 by CIN in 2021 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 15 spots below the room's consensus #42 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Zaven Collins (age 21.9 at draft) as a first-round pick at #29 (range #14-#44, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Rashan Gary (Starter), Jachai Polite (Bust), Haason Reddick (Bust). Ceiling is Rashan Gary (Starter); floor is Jahlani Tavai (Starter). School SP+ 5.6 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jachai Polite, Haason Reddick, Zach Cunningham. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #29 and the room's #27 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.