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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2021 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2021 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (CB)
ZM
Zech McPhearson
CB · Texas Tech
23.1 yo · 5'10" · 191 lb
BE
Brandin Echols
CB · Kentucky
23.5 yo · 5'10" · 179 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Brandin Echols over Zech McPhearson.

Decisive factor: a bust risk 52 points lower. Reinforced by 17-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Zech McPhearson
Predicted pick
#142
range #125–#159
Bust probability· rough estimate
52%
0%comp-based · 0/4
Consensus rank
#105
on 1 board
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
Brandin Echols
Predicted pick
#125
range #98–#152
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Zech McPhearson· CB / S
  • Brandin Echols· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionZech McPhearson0
  • AthleticismBrandin Echols53
  • AgeZech McPhearson30
  • ConsensusZech McPhearson28
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Zech McPhearson50
  • Breakout ageZech McPhearson50
  • WorkloadZech McPhearson100
  • RAS × productionZech McPhearson99

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Dane CruikshankCB · Contributor→ shared byZech McPhearsonBrandin Echols
  • Corey BallentineCB · Contributor→ shared byZech McPhearsonBrandin Echols
  • Davontae HarrisCB · Contributor→ shared byZech McPhearsonBrandin Echols
Zech McPhearson
  • Jaquan Johnson
    CB · #181
    Backup
  • Dane Cruikshankshared
    CB · #152
    Contributor
  • Corey Ballentineshared
    CB · #180
    Contributor
  • Jermaine Kelly
    CB · #222
    TBD
  • Davontae Harrisshared
    CB · #151
    Contributor
Brandin Echols
  • Isaiah Johnson
    CB · #129
    Bust
  • Corey Ballentineshared
    CB · #180
    Contributor
  • Davontae Harrisshared
    CB · #151
    Contributor
  • Prince Charles Iworah
    CB · #249
    Bust
  • Dane Cruikshankshared
    CB · #152
    Contributor

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Zech McPhearson
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Consensus skeptic
    2 boards place him at mean rank #200; model has him #142 — a 58-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Brandin Echols
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.5 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #200; model has him #125 — a 75-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Comp group bust rate
    2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Isaiah Johnson, Prince Charles Iworah. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Snap share
Zech McPhearsonBrandin Echols· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Zech McPhearson

Draftanomics projects Zech McPhearson (age 23.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #142 (range #125-#159, wide band). Bust probability sits at 52% — elevated. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Jaquan Johnson (Backup), Dane Cruikshank (Contributor), Corey Ballentine (Contributor). Ceiling is Davontae Harris (Contributor); floor is Jaquan Johnson (Backup). Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 58 spots ahead of the room (board #142 vs consensus #200) — but size the bet for the 52% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.

Brandin Echols

Draftanomics projects Brandin Echols (age 23.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #125 (range #98-#152, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Isaiah Johnson (Bust), Corey Ballentine (Contributor), Davontae Harris (Contributor). Ceiling is Davontae Harris (Contributor); floor is Corey Ballentine (Contributor). 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Isaiah Johnson, Prince Charles Iworah. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 75 spots ahead of the room (board #125 vs consensus #200), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.