3 prospects · 2021 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Zech McPhearson (age 23.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #142 (range #125-#159, wide band). Bust probability sits at 63% — scary. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Jaquan Johnson (Backup), Dane Cruikshank (Contributor), Corey Ballentine (Contributor). Ceiling is Davontae Harris (Contributor); floor is Jaquan Johnson (Backup). Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 58 spots ahead of the room (board #142 vs consensus #200) — but size the bet for the 63% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects Simi Fehoko (age 23.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #236 (range #198-#274, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 30% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jalen Hurd (Bust), Dylan Cantrell, Amara Darboh (Bust). Ceiling is Dylan Cantrell; floor is Devin Lucien. 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jalen Hurd, Amara Darboh, Jaleel Scott. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #136 and the model won't take him before #236 — a 100-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Dayo Odeyingbo (age 21.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #131 (range #89-#173, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 25% — manageable. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Larry Ogunjobi (Bust), Stephen Weatherly (Contributor), Yannick Ngakoue (Starter). Ceiling is Yannick Ngakoue (Starter); floor is Stephen Weatherly (Contributor). 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Larry Ogunjobi, Dawuane Smoot. Mixed signal from history. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #94 and the model won't take him before #131 — a 37-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.