3 prospects · 2021 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Zech McPhearson (age 23.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #142 (range #125-#159, wide band). Bust probability sits at 63% — scary. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Jaquan Johnson (Backup), Dane Cruikshank (Contributor), Corey Ballentine (Contributor). Ceiling is Davontae Harris (Contributor); floor is Jaquan Johnson (Backup). Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 58 spots ahead of the room (board #142 vs consensus #200) — but size the bet for the 63% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects Israel Mukuamu (age 21.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #148 (range #117-#179, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 11% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Maurice Canady (Bust), Avonte Maddox (Starter), Harlan Miller (Contributor). Ceiling is Avonte Maddox (Starter); floor is Harlan Miller (Contributor). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Maurice Canady, Shaquill Griffin, Kamrin Moore. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #113 and the model won't take him before #148 — a 35-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Andre Cisco (age 21.1 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #73 (range #20-#126, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 4% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Sean Murphy-Bunting (Starter), Michael Jackson (Starter), Harlan Miller (Contributor). Ceiling is Artie Burns (Starter); floor is Harlan Miller (Contributor). School SP+ rating -9.8 (well below FBS median of 0). College production may not translate against NFL-quality DBs/pass-rushers. Schedule rank #21 (1=hardest). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #73 sits within 5 spots of the room's #78 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 4% bust probability break ties on draft day.