3 prospects · 2021 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Patrick Johnson (age 23.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #211 (range #168-#254, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Tarell Basham (Bust), Duke Ejiofor (Bust), John Cominsky (Contributor). Ceiling is John Cominsky (Contributor); floor is Jordan Brailford (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Tarell Basham, Duke Ejiofor, Jordan Brailford (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #170 and the model won't take him before #211 — a 40-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Malcolm Koonce (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #237 (range #199-#275, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 22% — manageable. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Michael Dogbe (Backup), Jalen Jelks, Zach Sieler (Starter). Ceiling is Zach Sieler (Starter); floor is Michael Dogbe (Backup). RAS 3.12 (31th percentile at EDGE). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #191 and the model won't take him before #237 — a 46-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Victor Dimukeje (age 21.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #198 (range #171-#225, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 19% — manageable. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Joe Jackson (Bust), Dorance Armstrong Jr. (Starter), Jihad Ward (Starter). Ceiling is Jihad Ward (Starter); floor is Oshane Ximines (Contributor). RAS 4.31 (43th percentile at EDGE). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #198 sits within 6 spots of the room's #204 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 19% bust probability break ties on draft day.