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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2021 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (LB)
PW
Pete Werner
LB · Ohio St.
21.9 yo · 6'2" · 238 lb
NN
Nick Niemann
LB · Iowa
23.4 yo · 6'3" · 234 lb
Tiebreaker
Medium confidence
Take Pete Werner over Nick Niemann.

Decisive factor: 83-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by $7M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Pete Werner
Predicted pick
#101
range #68–#134
Bust probability
0%
0%0/3 comps
Consensus rank
#126
on 22 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$10Mmodel
Nick Niemann
Predicted pick
#184
range #153–#215
Bust probability
4%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Pete Werner· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Nick Niemann· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionPete Werner0
  • AthleticismNick Niemann67
  • AgePete Werner80
  • ConsensusNick Niemann13
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Pete Werner50
  • Breakout agePete Werner50
  • WorkloadPete Werner100
  • RAS × productionPete Werner30

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Pete Werner
  • Shaun Dion Hamilton
    LB · #197
    Contributor
  • Ben Burr-Kirven
    LB · #142
    Bust
  • Vosean Joseph
    LB · #147
    TBD
  • Azeem Victor
    LB · #216
    TBD
  • Duke Riley
    LB · #75
    Bust
Nick Niemann
  • Andrew Van Ginkel
    LB · #151
    Starter
  • Ty Summers
    LB · #226
    Bust
  • Blake Cashman
    LB · #157
    Starter
  • Drue Tranquill
    LB · #130
    Starter
  • Sione Takitaki
    LB · #80
    Contributor

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Pete Werner
Risks
  • Comp group bust rate
    2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Ben Burr-Kirven, Duke Riley. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
  • Below-cohort college production
    Position-cohort z-score on production composite is -1.04 — well below the front7 average. Raw box-score output didn't keep pace with peers.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Nick Niemann
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #344; model has him #184 — a 160-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Below-cohort college production
    Position-cohort z-score on production composite is -1.14 — well below the front7 average. Raw box-score output didn't keep pace with peers.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Andrew Van Ginkel, Blake Cashman, Drue Tranquill. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Snap share
Pete WernerNick Niemann· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Pete Werner

Draftanomics projects Pete Werner (age 21.9 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #101 (range #68-#134, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Shaun Dion Hamilton (Contributor), Ben Burr-Kirven (Bust), Vosean Joseph. Ceiling is Vosean Joseph; floor is Azeem Victor. 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Ben Burr-Kirven, Duke Riley. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 14 spots below the room's consensus #87 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.

Nick Niemann

Draftanomics projects Nick Niemann (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #184 (range #153-#215, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 4% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Andrew Van Ginkel (Starter), Ty Summers (Bust), Blake Cashman (Starter). Ceiling is Drue Tranquill (Starter); floor is Sione Takitaki (Contributor). Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 160 spots ahead of the room (board #184 vs consensus #344), and at a 4% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.