2 prospects · 2021 draft
Decisive factor: 98-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 65 points lower and a stronger historical comp arc.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Kyle Trask (age 23.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #108 (range #90-#126, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Gardner Minshew II (Starter), Jake Rudock (Bust), Nathan Peterman (Bust). Ceiling is Gardner Minshew II (Starter); floor is Logan Woodside (Bust). Drafted #64 by TAM in 2021 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 19 spots below the room's consensus #89 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Zach Wilson (age 21.7 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #10 (range #1-#28, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Lamar Jackson (Franchise), Mason Rudolph (Contributor), Mitchell Trubisky (Bust). Ceiling is Lamar Jackson (Franchise); floor is Mason Rudolph (Contributor). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #10 sits within 3 spots of the room's #7 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.