2 prospects · 2021 draft
Decisive factor: a stronger historical comp arc.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Kellen Mond (age 21.9 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #169 (range #133-#205, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 27% — manageable. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Joshua Dobbs, Jarrett Stidham (Bust), Drew Lock (Contributor). Ceiling is Drew Lock (Contributor); floor is Jeff Driskel. PPA avg_all 0.346 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #91 and the model won't take him before #169 — a 78-spot markdown. The discount is earned — negative per-play impact leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Ian Book (age 23.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #164 (range #137-#191, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 31% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jake Rudock (Bust), Gardner Minshew II (Starter), Danny Etling. Ceiling is Gardner Minshew II (Starter); floor is Danny Etling. School SP+ 21.0 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jake Rudock, Cardale Jones, C.J. Beathard. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 57 spots ahead of the room (board #164 vs consensus #221), and at a 31% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.