3 prospects · 2021 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Frank Darby (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #181 (range #151-#211, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 57% — elevated. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Diontae Johnson (Franchise), Hunter Renfrow (Contributor), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Starter). Ceiling is Diontae Johnson (Franchise); floor is Marcus Green. Age 23.6 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #104 and the model won't take him before #181 — a 77-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects D'Wayne Eskridge (age 24.1 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #42 (range #12-#72, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Travis Fulgham (Contributor), Jakeem Grant (Contributor), Mack Hollins (Bust). Ceiling is Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Starter); floor is Jakeem Grant (Contributor). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Mack Hollins, Cooper Kupp. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 40 spots ahead of the room (board #42 vs consensus #82), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Marquez Stevenson (age 23.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #155 (range #112-#198, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 26% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: J'Mon Moore (Bust), Devin Lucien, Diontae Johnson (Franchise). Ceiling is Diontae Johnson (Franchise); floor is Dillon Mitchell. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: J'Mon Moore, Jaleel Scott. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #106 and the model won't take him before #155 — a 49-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.